Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ryan Bader has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ilir Latifi has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ryan Bader
oldest →W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · Aug 14W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16 Ilir Latifi
oldest →L
KOvs Volkan Oezdemir · Aug 19L
vs Derrick Lewis · Feb 20W
vs Tanner Boser · Jun 21W
vs Aleksei Oleinik · Oct 22L
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ryan BaderMetricIlir Latifi
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.43Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap-0.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ryan BaderIlir Latifi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ryan Bader(10 fights)Ilir Latifi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -6.5|Blue +6.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ryan BaderTargetIlir Latifi
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ilir Latifi edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Ryan Bader edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
0Knockdowns
