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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Scott Holtzman won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1443
Elo1425
Alan Patrick

Scott HoltzmanvsAlan PatrickUFC Prediction Result

UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · Saturday, October 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Scott Holtzman won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:42

Style matchupScott Holtzman: Pressure fightervsAlan Patrick: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alan Patrick wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Scott Holtzman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Patrick at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Scott Holtzman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Scott Holtzman has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Scott Holtzman has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Alan Patrick (53.5%).
  • Alan Patrick has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Scott Holtzman
Red Corner
VS
Alan Patrick
Blue Corner
+260
(28%)
Vegas Odds
-320
(76%)
1443
Elo
1425
42
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Scott HoltzmanL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Aug 19
W
vs Jim Miller · Feb 20
L
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Aug 20
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Apr 21
L
vs Clay Guida · Dec 22
latest
Alan PatrickL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Damien Brown · Mar 16
W
vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18
L
vs Bobby Green · Sep 20
L
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Scott HoltzmanMetricAlan Patrick
4.32
Strikes / min
1.82
3.66
Strikes absorbed / min
2.95
55%
Strike defense
43%
1.88
TDs / 15 min
3.01
67%
Takedown defense
43%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.66Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1572Strikes63.3 vs 22.2Takedowns3.0 vs 3.7Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.33Form0.5 vs 0.9
Scott HoltzmanAlan Patrick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Scott Holtzman(10 fights)Alan Patrick(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +18.4|Blue -18.4
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Scott HoltzmanTargetAlan Patrick

By target zone

55
60% acc · 75%
Head
16
36% acc · 64%
8
80% acc · 11%
Body
8
57% acc · 32%
10
100% acc · 14%
Leg
1
33% acc · 4%

By position

27
48% acc · 37%
Distance
22
38% acc · 88%
6
100% acc · 8%
Clinch
3
100% acc · 12%
40
82% acc · 55%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Scott Holtzman rounds
0
even
0
Alan Patrick rounds
Round 1Scott Holtzman edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control1:13
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Scott Holtzman edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control2:13
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:13Control
Round 3Scott Holtzman edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control2:07
Knockdowns1
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
73 / 111
Sig Strikes
25 / 62
64.3%
Sig Str %
37.7%
96 / 138
Total Strikes
27 / 65
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 4
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:33
Ctrl Time
0:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alan Patrick11 / 2512 / 260 / 10
1Scott Holtzman19 / 3420 / 350 / 00
2Alan Patrick11 / 2512 / 260 / 30
2Scott Holtzman23 / 3534 / 481 / 20
3Alan Patrick3 / 123 / 130 / 00
3Scott Holtzman31 / 4242 / 550 / 00

Scott Holtzman

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights13

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9