Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ashlee Evans-Smith won · S-DEC R3

Elo1404

Elo1468

Marion ReneauvsAshlee Evans-SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Ashlee Evans-Smith won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marion Reneau wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Ashlee Evans-Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marion Reneau at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marion Reneau threatens submissions; Ashlee Evans-Smith has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Marion Reneau

Red Corner

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1404

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Marion ReneauL5 streak

oldest →

vs Cat Zingano · Jul 18

vs Yana Kunitskaya · Mar 19

vs Raquel Pennington · Jun 20

vs Macy Chiasson · Mar 21

KOvs Miesha Tate · Jul 21

latest

Ashlee Evans-SmithL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sarah Moras · Sep 17

vs Bec Rawlings · Apr 18

vs Andrea Lee · Feb 19

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20

vs Ailin Perez · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Marion ReneauMetricAshlee Evans-Smith

3.20

Strikes / min

4.03

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

59%

Strike defense

53%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

0.95

50%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.32evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Marion ReneauAshlee Evans-Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Marion Reneau(10 fights)Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.4|Blue +64.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -221.0|Blue +221.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Marion ReneauTargetAshlee Evans-Smith

By target zone

23% acc · 45%

Head

15% acc · 45%

86% acc · 23%

Body

63% acc · 45%

85% acc · 32%

Leg

83% acc · 9%

By position

38% acc · 83%

Distance

23% acc · 80%

45% acc · 17%

Clinch

69% acc · 16%

0% acc

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Marion Reneau rounds

even

Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds

Round 1Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:12

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Marion Reneau edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 140

Sig Strikes

55 / 213

38%

Sig Str %

25.7%

55 / 142

Total Strikes

57 / 216

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ashlee Evans-Smith	19 / 71	19 / 71	0 / 0	0
1	Marion Reneau	20 / 59	22 / 61	1 / 1	1
2	Ashlee Evans-Smith	16 / 78	16 / 78	0 / 0	0
2	Marion Reneau	21 / 40	21 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Ashlee Evans-Smith	20 / 64	22 / 67	1 / 2	0
3	Marion Reneau	12 / 41	12 / 41	0 / 0	0

Marion Reneau

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights12

Ashlee Evans-Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9