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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1354

Derrick LewisvsRuan PottsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · Saturday, February 28, 2015Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:18

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -705 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Ruan Potts has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Derrick Lewis has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Derrick Lewis has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Derrick Lewis has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis

Red Corner

Ruan Potts

Blue Corner

-705

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+570

(15%)

1481

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Ruan PottsL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Soa Palelei · May 14

KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Derrick LewisMetricRuan Potts

2.46

Strikes / min

0.85

2.57

Strikes absorbed / min

5.92

39%

Strike defense

22%

0.55

TDs / 15 min

0.75

52%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11Δ 4.96 — meaningful gap-5.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Derrick LewisRuan Potts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Derrick Lewis(10 fights)Ruan Potts(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +127.2|Blue -127.2

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -6.0|Blue +6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Derrick LewisTargetRuan Potts

By target zone

62% acc · 89%

Head

33% acc · 29%

100% acc · 9%

Body

50% acc · 29%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

33% acc · 4%

Distance

56% acc · 71%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

65% acc · 87%

Ground

50% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Derrick Lewis rounds

even

Ruan Potts rounds

Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:10

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 2Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control2:58

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 82

Sig Strikes

7 / 13

62%

Sig Str %

29%

60 / 91

Total Strikes

31 / 40

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

4:08

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ruan Potts	7 / 12	23 / 28	1 / 3	1
1	Derrick Lewis	17 / 31	21 / 36	0 / 1	0
2	Ruan Potts	0 / 1	8 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Derrick Lewis	36 / 51	39 / 55	0 / 1	0

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31

Ruan Potts

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3