Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim Elliott
oldest →W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25L
DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26 Ali Bagautinov
oldest →W
vs John Lineker · Feb 14L
vs Demetrious Johnson · Jun 14L
vs Joseph Benavidez · Oct 15W
vs Geane Herrera · Jun 16L
vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim ElliottMetricAli Bagautinov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.51evenly matched on net striking-0.24
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tim ElliottAli Bagautinov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Elliott(10 fights)Ali Bagautinov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +9.4|Blue -9.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.9|Blue -2.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +4.0|Blue -4.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tim ElliottTargetAli Bagautinov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Ali Bagautinov edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:04
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:25Control
Round 3Tim Elliott edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:02
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
