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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Andre Lima won · DQ R2

Elo1495

Elo1517

Igor SeverinovsAndre LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andre Lima won

DQ · Round 2 · 2:52

Style matchupIgor Severino: WrestlervsAndre Lima: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Igor Severino wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Andre Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Lima has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andre Lima has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Igor Severino

Red Corner

Andre Lima

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1495

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Igor SeverinoNo prior UFC fights on record.

Andre Lima

oldest →

vs Mitch Raposo · Jun 24

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 24

SUBvs Daniel Barez · Mar 25

DECvs Kevin Borjas · Jun 26

SUBvs Namsrai Batbayar · Aug 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Igor SeverinoMetricAndre Lima

7.17

Strikes / min

4.06

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.49

47%

Strike defense

57%

9.69

TDs / 15 min

1.36

50%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.84Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Igor SeverinoAndre Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Igor Severino(1 fights)Andre Lima(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.7|Blue +21.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Igor SeverinoTargetAndre Lima

By target zone

31% acc · 47%

Head

40% acc · 53%

69% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 27%

100% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

44% acc · 86%

Distance

52% acc · 97%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Igor Severino rounds

even

Andre Lima rounds

Round 1Igor Severino edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns4

Control1:41

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Igor Severino edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:19

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 78

Sig Strikes

30 / 58

45%

Sig Str %

54.5%

40 / 85

Total Strikes

38 / 66

5 / 9

TDs

1 / 2

49.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Lima	16 / 37	21 / 42	1 / 2	2
1	Igor Severino	22 / 46	24 / 48	4 / 6	0
2	Andre Lima	14 / 21	17 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Igor Severino	14 / 32	16 / 37	1 / 3	0

Igor Severino

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1

Andre Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6