Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Stipe Miocic has lost 80% of fights by KO.
- Stipe Miocic has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16L
vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17 Stipe MiocicL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Jul 18W
KOvs Daniel Cormier · Aug 19W
vs Daniel Cormier · Aug 20L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Mar 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricStipe Miocic
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.61Δ 3.27 — meaningful gap+0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Roy NelsonStipe Miocic
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Stipe Miocic(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.2|Blue +3.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -210.0|Blue +210.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Roy NelsonTargetStipe Miocic
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:18
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Round 2Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
39Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:51Control
Round 3Stipe Miocic edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:03
35Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
