Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ben Nguyen threatens submissions; Louis Smolka has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Ben Nguyen has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Ben NguyenL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 15W
vs Geane Herrera · Nov 16W
SUBvs Tim Elliott · Jun 17L
SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Feb 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricBen Nguyen
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Louis SmolkaBen Nguyen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Ben Nguyen(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +55.8|Blue -55.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.5|Blue -2.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Louis SmolkaTargetBen Nguyen
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Louis Smolka edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns1
Control3:06
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:29Control
Round 2Louis Smolka edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns2
Control3:56
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
