Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Ian Machado Garry has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Daniel RodriguezW3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25W
vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25 Ian Machado GarryW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Michael Page · Jun 24L
vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24W
vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25W
vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Daniel RodriguezMetricIan Machado Garry
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.80evenly matched on net striking+1.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Daniel RodriguezIan Machado Garry
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -20.4|Blue +20.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +119.0|Blue -119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Daniel RodriguezTargetIan Machado Garry
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
1
Ian Machado Garry rounds
Round 1Ian Machado Garry edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
