Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Patterson enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Michael Page has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Michael Page has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael PageW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Jun 24W
vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25W
vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25 Sam PattersonW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24W
SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24W
KOvs Danny Barlow · Mar 25W
KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael PageMetricSam Patterson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.77Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael PageSam Patterson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Page(5 fights)Sam Patterson(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -6.4|Blue +6.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael PageTargetSam Patterson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Michael Page edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 3Michael Page edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:26
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:03Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
