Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Prado enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jake Matthews has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jake Matthews has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jake Matthews
oldest →L
vs Michael Morales · Nov 23W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26 Francisco PradoL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Feb 23W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Jul 23L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 24L
vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Jul 25L
DECvs Charles Radtke · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jake MatthewsMetricFrancisco Prado
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jake MatthewsFrancisco Prado
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jake Matthews(10 fights)Francisco Prado(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +70.4|Blue -70.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jake MatthewsTargetFrancisco Prado
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Francisco Prado edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:33Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:16Control
Round 3Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:40
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
