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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jordan Leavitt won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Kurt Holobaugh
Elo1506
Jordan Leavitt

Kurt HolobaughvsJordan LeavittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · Saturday, May 31, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Leavitt won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:39

Style matchupKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fightervsJordan Leavitt: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jordan Leavitt wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Jordan Leavitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Leavitt at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kurt Holobaugh threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kurt Holobaugh
Red Corner
VS
Jordan Leavitt
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1490
Elo
1506
39
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kurt Holobaugh
oldest →
L
vs Thiago Moises · May 19
W
SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23
L
vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24
W
vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24
L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25
latest
Jordan Leavitt
oldest →
L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 22
W
KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23
L
SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23
W
vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kurt HolobaughMetricJordan Leavitt
4.58
Strikes / min
2.21
4.24
Strikes absorbed / min
1.59
49%
Strike defense
58%
0.65
TDs / 15 min
3.15
38%
Takedown defense
30%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.34evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1449 vs 1514Strikes4.6 vs 2.2Takedowns0.7 vs 3.1Sub Atts0.80 vs 1.10Form-0.3 vs -0.2
Kurt HolobaughJordan Leavitt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -15.9|Blue +15.9
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -483.0|Blue +483.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kurt HolobaughTargetJordan Leavitt

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Kurt Holobaugh rounds
0
even
1
Jordan Leavitt rounds
Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
1:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
1 / 1
0%
Sig Str %
100%
7 / 9
Total Strikes
2 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 4
—
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:27

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jordan Leavitt1 / 12 / 33 / 41
1Kurt Holobaugh0 / 17 / 90 / 00

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights9

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10