Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Belal Muhammad has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Demian Maia (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Demian Maia
oldest →L
vs Kamaru Usman · May 18W
SUBvs Lyman Good · Feb 19W
DECvs Rocco Martin · Jun 19W
SUBvs Ben Askren · Oct 19L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 20 Belal MuhammadL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Gilbert Burns · May 23W
vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24L
vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25L
DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Demian MaiaMetricBelal Muhammad
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Demian MaiaBelal Muhammad
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Demian Maia(10 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -76.8|Blue +76.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +336.0|Blue -336.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Demian MaiaTargetBelal Muhammad
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Demian Maia edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control2:30
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:46
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:58
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
