Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Michael Kuiper is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.
- Rafael Natal has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17 Michael KuiperL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Jared Hamman · Aug 12L
SUBvs Tom Lawlor · Apr 13L
SUBvs Bradley Scott · Oct 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael NatalMetricMichael Kuiper
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael NatalMichael Kuiper
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Natal(10 fights)Michael Kuiper(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +8.5|Blue -8.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -49.2|Blue +49.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael NatalTargetMichael Kuiper
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns4
Control2:28
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:19Control
Round 2Rafael Natal edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns1
Control1:22
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 3Michael Kuiper edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control2:34
Knockdowns0
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
