Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cezar Ferreira has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Elias Theodorou
oldest →L
vs Brad Tavares · Jul 17W
vs Daniel Kelly · Nov 17W
vs Trevor Smith · May 18L
vs Derek Brunson · May 19 Cezar FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 16W
vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17W
SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18L
vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18L
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Elias TheodorouMetricCezar Ferreira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.80Δ 2.34 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Elias TheodorouCezar Ferreira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Elias Theodorou(10 fights)Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +117.2|Blue -117.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Elias TheodorouTargetCezar Ferreira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Elias Theodorou edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:39
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Elias Theodorou edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control1:44
1Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:49Control
Round 3Elias Theodorou edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:16
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:57Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
