Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ Dillashaw
oldest →W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22 Renan BaraoL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17L
vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18L
KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19L
vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ DillashawMetricRenan Barao
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.62Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.12
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
TJ DillashawRenan Barao
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Renan Barao(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +117.7|Blue -117.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
TJ DillashawTargetRenan Barao
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control1:21
30Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control2:11
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control2:05
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
