Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Andrei Arlovski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Andrei Arlovski has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stefan Struve has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Stefan StruveL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 17L
vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18W
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19L
KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19L
KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20 Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak
oldest →W
vs Jake Collier · Apr 22L
SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22L
KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24L
vs Martin Buday · Jun 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Stefan StruveMetricAndrei Arlovski
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.92Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Stefan StruveAndrei Arlovski
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Stefan Struve(10 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -101.8|Blue +101.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Stefan StruveTargetAndrei Arlovski
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:01
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:42Control
Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control1:16
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:41Control
Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:08Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
