Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Islam Makhachev (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Jun 24W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25 Thiago MoisesL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25L
DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricThiago Moises
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00Δ 2.88 — meaningful gap-1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Islam MakhachevThiago Moises
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +57.9|Blue -57.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Islam MakhachevTargetThiago Moises
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns1
Control1:23
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:06Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control3:06
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:42
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:35Control
Round 4Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control2:00
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
