Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Chase Sherman has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin Willis
oldest →W
vs James Mulheron · Jul 17W
KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Mar 19 Chase ShermanL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22L
SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22W
KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22L
vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22L
vs Karl Williams · May 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin WillisMetricChase Sherman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.80Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap-0.61
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin WillisChase Sherman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Willis(5 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +32.8|Blue -32.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin WillisTargetChase Sherman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Justin Willis edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:32
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Justin Willis edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control1:54
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chase Sherman edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:34
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
