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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rick Story won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1491

Tarec SaffiedinevsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rick Story won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTarec Saffiedine: Well-roundedvsRick Story: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tarec Saffiedine wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tarec Saffiedine at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tarec Saffiedine has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tarec Saffiedine (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Tarec Saffiedine

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1361

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tarec SaffiedineL2 streak

oldest →

vs Hyun Gyu Lim · Jan 14

KOvs Rory MacDonald · Oct 14

vs Jake Ellenberger · Jan 16

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 16

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jun 17

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tarec SaffiedineMetricRick Story

4.05

Strikes / min

3.80

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

62%

Strike defense

62%

0.52

TDs / 15 min

2.53

84%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tarec SaffiedineRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tarec Saffiedine(6 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -129.9|Blue +129.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -483.0|Blue +483.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tarec SaffiedineTargetRick Story

By target zone

31% acc · 50%

Head

31% acc · 33%

75% acc · 28%

Body

79% acc · 45%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

76% acc · 22%

By position

44% acc · 72%

Distance

40% acc · 45%

47% acc · 28%

Clinch

70% acc · 55%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tarec Saffiedine rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:07

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:30

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 3Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 71

Sig Strikes

58 / 111

44.7%

Sig Str %

52%

47 / 86

Total Strikes

97 / 150

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

6:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rick Story	16 / 32	27 / 43	0 / 3
1	Tarec Saffiedine	6 / 15	13 / 22	0 / 0
2	Rick Story	13 / 24	31 / 42	0 / 1
2	Tarec Saffiedine	11 / 22	18 / 29	0 / 1
3	Rick Story	29 / 55	39 / 65	0 / 2
3	Tarec Saffiedine	15 / 34	16 / 35	0 / 0

Tarec Saffiedine

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16