Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Charles Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kevin Aguilar has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Charles Rosa (52.9%).
- Kevin Aguilar has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Charles RosaL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Darrick Minner · Feb 21W
vs Justin Jaynes · Jun 21L
vs Damon Jackson · Oct 21L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 22 Kevin AguilarL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19L
KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Charles RosaMetricKevin Aguilar
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.78evenly matched on net striking-0.85
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Charles RosaKevin Aguilar
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Charles Rosa(10 fights)Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +30.0|Blue -30.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Charles RosaTargetKevin Aguilar
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Charles Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Charles Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Charles Rosa edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
