Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1506

Ben RothwellvsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcos Rogerio de Lima won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:32

Style matchupBen Rothwell: Well-roundedvsMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ben Rothwell

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1494

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jul 19

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben RothwellMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

3.71

Strikes / min

3.70

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

47%

Strike defense

51%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

1.40

70%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben RothwellMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.0|Blue +12.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben RothwellTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

25% acc · 100%

Head

55% acc · 79%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

25% acc · 100%

Distance

58% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Rothwell rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 8

Sig Strikes

14 / 24

25%

Sig Str %

58%

2 / 8

Total Strikes

14 / 24

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	14 / 24	14 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Ben Rothwell	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 1	0

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17