Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Hamill enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Hamill has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matt Hamill has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Hamill has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt HamillL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10L
DECvs Rampage Jackson · May 11L
KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Aug 11L
vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13 Roger Hollett
oldest →L
vs Fabio Maldonado · May 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt HamillMetricRoger Hollett
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.11Δ 4.53 — meaningful gap-4.64
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt HamillRoger Hollett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Hamill(6 fights)Roger Hollett(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +138.1|Blue -138.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt HamillTargetRoger Hollett
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Hamill edged it
Sig. strikes67
Takedowns1
Control1:25
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns2
Control0:57
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Matt Hamill edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns3
Control3:38
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
