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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jared Rosholt won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
Jared Rosholt
Elo1361

Jared RosholtvsDaniel OmielanczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · Friday, April 11, 2014Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Jared Rosholt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Daniel Omielanczuk wins(71.4%)

Actual result: Jared Rosholt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Omielanczuk at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Omielanczuk enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Daniel Omielanczuk is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jared Rosholt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Jared Rosholt has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Omielanczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Rosholt
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Omielanczuk
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
1490
Elo
1361
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared Rosholt
oldest →
L
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14
W
KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15
W
DECvs Tim Johnson · Aug 15
W
vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15
L
vs Roy Nelson · Feb 16
latest
Daniel OmielanczukL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Jarjis Danho · Feb 16
W
vs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 16
L
SUBvs Stefan Struve · Oct 16
L
DECvs Tim Johnson · Mar 17
L
vs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared RosholtMetricDaniel Omielanczuk
2.08
Strikes / min
3.09
1.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.29
59%
Strike defense
47%
1.83
TDs / 15 min
0.56
66%
Takedown defense
68%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1514Strikes33.0 vs 49.0Takedowns1.0 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Jared RosholtDaniel Omielanczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jared Rosholt(8 fights)Daniel Omielanczuk(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +129.5|Blue -129.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -70.0|Blue +70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared RosholtTargetDaniel Omielanczuk

By target zone

17
50% acc · 50%
Head
5
50% acc · 50%
16
100% acc · 47%
Body
4
100% acc · 40%
1
100% acc · 3%
Leg
1
100% acc · 10%

By position

4
29% acc · 12%
Distance
7
64% acc · 70%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 10%
30
83% acc · 88%
Ground
2
67% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Jared Rosholt rounds
0
even
0
Daniel Omielanczuk rounds
Round 1Jared Rosholt edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:10
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jared Rosholt edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control4:07
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 3Jared Rosholt edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control4:51
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
34 / 51
Sig Strikes
10 / 15
66%
Sig Str %
67.7%
124 / 151
Total Strikes
41 / 50
3 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
77.7%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
13:08
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Daniel Omielanczuk1 / 35 / 90 / 00
1Jared Rosholt6 / 1661 / 741 / 10
2Daniel Omielanczuk7 / 1018 / 220 / 00
2Jared Rosholt11 / 1830 / 401 / 30
3Daniel Omielanczuk2 / 218 / 190 / 00
3Jared Rosholt17 / 1733 / 371 / 10

Jared Rosholt

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Daniel Omielanczuk

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9