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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · SUB R2

Elo1353

Elo1430

Cyrille DiabatevsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · Saturday, October 16, 2010London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:41

Style matchupCyrille Diabate: Elusive strikervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Cyrille Diabate wins(87.5%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cyrille Diabate at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alexander Gustafsson has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cyrille Diabate (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cyrille Diabate

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1353

Elo

1430

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'5"

205.74 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cyrille DiabateL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Perosh · Nov 11

vs Tom DeBlass · Apr 12

SUBvs Chad Griggs · Nov 12

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Feb 13

SUBvs Ilir Latifi · Mar 14

latest

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cyrille DiabateMetricAlexander Gustafsson

4.06

Strikes / min

4.03

1.78

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

60%

Strike defense

51%

1.17

TDs / 15 min

1.53

53%

Takedown defense

83%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.28Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cyrille DiabateAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cyrille Diabate(8 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -77.5|Blue +77.5

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cyrille DiabateTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

43% acc · 55%

Head

50% acc · 82%

60% acc · 27%

Body

50% acc · 7%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

50% acc · 11%

By position

59% acc · 91%

Distance

28% acc · 25%

20% acc · 9%

Clinch

64% acc · 25%

Ground

70% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cyrille Diabate rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:51Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 22

Sig Strikes

28 / 56

46%

Sig Str %

58%

13 / 24

Total Strikes

60 / 94

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

5:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Gustafsson	20 / 45	40 / 68	1 / 2	0
1	Cyrille Diabate	9 / 17	11 / 19	0 / 1	0
2	Alexander Gustafsson	8 / 11	20 / 26	1 / 1	3
2	Cyrille Diabate	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0

Cyrille Diabate

StanceSouthpaw

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights8

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17