Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paulo Costa is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Garreth McLellan has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Paulo Costa has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Garreth McLellan (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Garreth McLellanL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Bartosz Fabinski · Apr 15W
KOvs Bubba Bush · Oct 15L
KOvs Magnus Cedenblad · May 16L
vs Alessio Di Chirico · Aug 16 Paulo CostaW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25W
KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Garreth McLellanMetricPaulo Costa
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.19
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Garreth McLellanPaulo Costa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Garreth McLellan(5 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -162.3|Blue +162.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -48.1|Blue +48.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Garreth McLellanTargetPaulo Costa
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paulo Costa edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
