Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Conor McGregor has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Conor McGregor has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Conor McGregorL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21L
KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricConor McGregor
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nate DiazConor McGregor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +22.2|Blue -22.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nate DiazTargetConor McGregor
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:30
Knockdowns0
34Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
2Knockdowns
Round 3Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes49
Takedowns0
Control1:31
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Round 4Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control1:07
46Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Round 5Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control2:42
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
