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Middleweight
3 Rounds
JunYong Park won · SUB R2
Elo1497
Albert Duraev
Elo1510

Albert DuraevvsJunYong ParkUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Saturday, July 15, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

JunYong Park won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:45

Style matchupAlbert Duraev: Well-roundedvsJunYong Park: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: JunYong Park wins(74.0%)

Actual result: JunYong Park wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JunYong Park at -154 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • JunYong Park threatens submissions; Albert Duraev has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Albert Duraev
Red Corner
VS
JunYong Park
Blue Corner
+130
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-154
(61%)
1497
Elo
1510
37
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Albert Duraev
oldest →
W
vs Roman Kopylov · Oct 21
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 22
W
vs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 23
latest
JunYong Park
oldest →
W
SUBvs Denis Tiuliulin · Feb 23
L
vs Andre Muniz · Dec 23
W
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 24
W
vs Ismail Naurdiev · Jun 25
L
vs Ikram Aliskerov · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Albert DuraevMetricJunYong Park
2.99
Strikes / min
4.64
3.01
Strikes absorbed / min
3.82
59%
Strike defense
51%
1.97
TDs / 15 min
1.69
66%
Takedown defense
54%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.02evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1538Strikes3.0 vs 4.5Takedowns2.0 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.60 vs 1.10Form0.5 vs 0.8
Albert DuraevJunYong Park

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Albert Duraev(4 fights)JunYong Park(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -12.9|Blue +12.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -49.0|Blue +49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Albert DuraevTargetJunYong Park

By target zone

18
32% acc · 58%
Head
41
48% acc · 82%
7
88% acc · 23%
Body
4
80% acc · 8%
6
50% acc · 19%
Leg
5
83% acc · 10%

By position

31
41% acc · 100%
Distance
47
51% acc · 94%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
100% acc · 4%
0
Ground
1
100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Albert Duraev rounds
0
even
2
JunYong Park rounds
Round 1JunYong Park edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:19
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Round 2JunYong Park edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control0:55
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:42Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
31 / 77
Sig Strikes
50 / 96
39%
Sig Str %
52.5%
35 / 83
Total Strikes
77 / 138
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 1
50%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
3
0
Rev
0
1:14
Ctrl Time
1:59

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1JunYong Park25 / 5425 / 540 / 11
1Albert Duraev20 / 4720 / 470 / 00
2JunYong Park25 / 4252 / 840 / 02
2Albert Duraev11 / 3015 / 361 / 20

Albert Duraev

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4

JunYong Park

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9