Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leonard Garcia enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Matt Grice has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leonard GarciaL4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Chan Sung Jung · Mar 11L
vs Max Holloway · Dec 12L
vs Cody McKenzie · Apr 13 Matt GriceL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 11L
vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leonard GarciaMetricMatt Grice
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.02Δ 3.42 — meaningful gap+1.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Leonard GarciaMatt Grice
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leonard Garcia(6 fights)Matt Grice(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -138.1|Blue +138.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -104.0|Blue +104.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Leonard GarciaTargetMatt Grice
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Grice edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:36Control
Round 2Matt Grice edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:08Control
Round 3Matt Grice edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:53Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
