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Women's Featherweight

3 Rounds

Josiane Nunes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1470

Josiane NunesvsZarah FairnUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Josiane Nunes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJosiane Nunes: Pressure fightervsZarah Fairn: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Josiane Nunes wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Josiane Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josiane Nunes at -540 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josiane Nunes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zarah Fairn enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Josiane Nunes (53.5%).
Zarah Fairn has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Josiane Nunes

Red Corner

Zarah Fairn

Blue Corner

-540

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+420

(19%)

1483

Elo

1470

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Josiane NunesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Bea Malecki · Aug 21

vs Ramona Pascual · Feb 22

vs Chelsea Chandler · Mar 24

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Aug 24

KOvs Priscila Cachoeira · Mar 25

latest

Zarah FairnL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Megan Anderson · Oct 19

KOvs Felicia Spencer · Feb 20

vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Josiane NunesMetricZarah Fairn

5.65

Strikes / min

4.55

5.76

Strikes absorbed / min

7.40

51%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

58%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11Δ 2.74 — meaningful gap-2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Josiane NunesZarah Fairn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Josiane Nunes(6 fights)Zarah Fairn(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.7|Blue -12.7

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -728.0|Blue +728.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Josiane NunesTargetZarah Fairn

By target zone

39% acc · 57%

Head

40% acc · 76%

73% acc · 37%

Body

85% acc · 15%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

46% acc · 80%

Distance

107

45% acc · 91%

65% acc · 20%

Clinch

77% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Josiane Nunes rounds

even

Zarah Fairn rounds

Round 1Zarah Fairn edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:27

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Zarah Fairn edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:16

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:19

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

102 / 211

Sig Strikes

117 / 251

49%

Sig Str %

47.3%

107 / 216

Total Strikes

122 / 256

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zarah Fairn	48 / 90	49 / 91	0 / 0
1	Josiane Nunes	41 / 87	44 / 90	0 / 0
2	Zarah Fairn	35 / 64	38 / 67	0 / 0
2	Josiane Nunes	27 / 49	28 / 50	0 / 0
3	Zarah Fairn	34 / 97	35 / 98	0 / 0
3	Josiane Nunes	34 / 75	35 / 76	0 / 0

Josiane Nunes

StanceSouthpaw

Height62.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6

Zarah Fairn

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4