Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Kamaru Usman has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kamaru Usman
oldest →W
vs Colby Covington · Nov 21L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26 Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kamaru UsmanMetricLeon Edwards
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.49Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+0.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kamaru UsmanLeon Edwards
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kamaru Usman(10 fights)Leon Edwards(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +9.7|Blue -9.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kamaru UsmanTargetLeon Edwards
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control1:21
13Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:01Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control1:42
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control3:23
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns1
Control2:51
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
Round 5Leon Edwards edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control1:19
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
