Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jacare Souza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Jack Hermansson has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Jack Hermansson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jacare SouzaL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · May 18W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18L
vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20L
SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21 Jack HermanssonL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Chris Curtis · Jul 22L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Dec 22L
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Jun 25L
KOvs Myktybek Orolbai · Nov 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jacare SouzaMetricJack Hermansson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.30Δ 1.73 — meaningful gap+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jacare SouzaJack Hermansson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jacare Souza(10 fights)Jack Hermansson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -80.1|Blue +80.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +147.0|Blue -147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jacare SouzaTargetJack Hermansson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:29
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:32Control
Round 2Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:59Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 4Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
50Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
Round 5Jack Hermansson edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
