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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Borjas won · Decision R3

Elo1518

Elo1486

Andre LimavsKevin BorjasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Borjas won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Kevin Borjas

Style matchupAndre Lima: Submission grapplervsKevin Borjas: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Andre Lima wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Kevin Borjas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andre Lima enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Andre Lima

Red Corner

Kevin Borjas

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1518

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andre LimaW4 streak

oldest →

vs Igor Severino · Mar 24

vs Mitch Raposo · Jun 24

vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 24

SUBvs Daniel Barez · Mar 25

latest

Kevin BorjasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Joshua Van · Nov 23

KOvs Alessandro Costa · May 24

vs Ronaldo Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Sumudaerji · Aug 25

KOvs Imanol Rodriguez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andre LimaMetricKevin Borjas

4.06

Strikes / min

3.96

2.49

Strikes absorbed / min

5.64

57%

Strike defense

49%

1.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

70%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.57Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-1.68

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andre Lima(5 fights)Kevin Borjas(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.6|Blue -31.6

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +350.0|Blue -350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andre LimaTargetKevin Borjas

By target zone

31% acc · 31%

Head

30% acc · 63%

42% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 31%

71% acc · 43%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 96%

Distance

36% acc · 94%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andre Lima rounds

even

Kevin Borjas rounds

Round 1Andre Lima edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:33

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Andre Lima edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:08

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 114

Sig Strikes

51 / 136

44.3%

Sig Str %

37.3%

58 / 121

Total Strikes

52 / 137

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:41

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kevin Borjas	18 / 51	18 / 51	0 / 0
1	Andre Lima	20 / 42	20 / 42	0 / 0
2	Kevin Borjas	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 1
2	Andre Lima	16 / 40	17 / 41	0 / 0
3	Kevin Borjas	15 / 39	16 / 40	0 / 0
3	Andre Lima	15 / 32	21 / 38	0 / 2

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 48% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Andre Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5

Kevin Borjas

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7