Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Spann won · SUB R1

Elo1519

Elo1468

Ryan SpannvsLukasz BrzeskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Spann won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:47

Style matchupRyan Spann: Submission grapplervsLukasz Brzeski: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Ryan Spann wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Ryan Spann wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lukasz Brzeski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ryan Spann has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ryan Spann

Red Corner

Lukasz Brzeski

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1519

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ryan Spann

oldest →

vs Anthony Smith · Aug 23

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Apr 24

SUBvs Ovince Saint Preux · Oct 24

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Mar 25

KOvs Marcus Buchecha · Apr 26

latest

Lukasz BrzeskiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Karl Williams · Mar 23

KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23

vs Valter Walker · Apr 24

KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ryan SpannMetricLukasz Brzeski

3.11

Strikes / min

4.90

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

43%

Strike defense

54%

1.21

TDs / 15 min

0.41

59%

Takedown defense

35%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.81Δ 2.06 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ryan SpannLukasz Brzeski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ryan Spann(10 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +50.4|Blue -50.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ryan SpannTargetLukasz Brzeski

By target zone

42% acc · 100%

Head

25% acc · 20%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 80%

By position

20% acc · 25%

Distance

63% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 75%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ryan Spann rounds

even

Lukasz Brzeski rounds

Round 1Ryan Spann edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:14

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 19

Sig Strikes

5 / 8

42%

Sig Str %

62%

8 / 19

Total Strikes

23 / 28

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lukasz Brzeski	5 / 8	23 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Ryan Spann	8 / 19	8 / 19	1 / 1	2

Ryan Spann

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17

Lukasz Brzeski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7