Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Kai Kara-France has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kai Kara-France
oldest →W
vs Askar Askarov · Mar 22L
KOvs Brandon Moreno · Jul 22W
KOvs Steve Erceg · Aug 24L
SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Jun 25 Raulian PaivaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mark De La Rosa · Feb 20W
DECvs Zhalgas Zhamagulov · Jul 20W
vs Kyler Phillips · Jul 21L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Dec 21L
vs Sergey Morozov · Jun 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kai Kara-FranceMetricRaulian Paiva
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.22Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap-0.87
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Kai Kara-FranceRaulian Paiva
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kai Kara-France(10 fights)Raulian Paiva(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +66.5|Blue -66.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Kai Kara-FranceTargetRaulian Paiva
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Raulian Paiva edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 2Raulian Paiva edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:03
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:23Control
Round 3Kai Kara-France edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns2
Control0:18
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
