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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Justin Gaethje won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1520

Elo1541

Ilia TopuriavsJustin GaethjeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Freedom 250 · Sunday, June 14, 2026Washington, USA

Official fight result

Justin Gaethje won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Justin Gaethje

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Justin Gaethje at +478 American odds · hypothetical only

+$478 profit

$578 total returned

Style matchupIlia Topuria: Submission grapplervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Justin Gaethje wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ilia Topuria enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ilia Topuria is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Justin Gaethje has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Ilia Topuria has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ilia Topuria has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ilia Topuria

Red Corner

Justin Gaethje

Blue Corner

-688

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+478

(17%)

1520

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ilia TopuriaW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 22

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24

KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25

latest

Justin GaethjeW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23

KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24

vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25

vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ilia TopuriaMetricJustin Gaethje

4.81

Strikes / min

6.48

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

7.05

64%

Strike defense

51%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

0.33

93%

Takedown defense

74%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap-0.57

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ilia Topuria(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.8|Blue +20.8

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ilia TopuriaTargetJustin Gaethje

By target zone

49% acc · 57%

Head

45% acc · 87%

82% acc · 38%

Body

67% acc · 9%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

80% acc · 4%

By position

54% acc · 70%

Distance

44% acc · 80%

76% acc · 23%

Clinch

71% acc · 16%

88% acc · 7%

Ground

75% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ilia Topuria rounds

even

Justin Gaethje rounds

Round 1Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control2:02

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:05

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 4Justin Gaethje edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:25

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

97 / 162

Sig Strikes

91 / 192

56.8%

Sig Str %

47.3%

111 / 177

Total Strikes

119 / 228

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 5

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:32

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Gaethje	32 / 68	35 / 71	0 / 3
1	Ilia Topuria	29 / 58	29 / 58	0 / 0
2	Ilia Topuria	44 / 60	52 / 69	0 / 0
2	Justin Gaethje	12 / 35	13 / 37	0 / 1
3	Justin Gaethje	22 / 36	31 / 46	0 / 0
3	Ilia Topuria	7 / 15	10 / 18	0 / 1
4	Justin Gaethje	25 / 53	40 / 74	0 / 1
4	Ilia Topuria	17 / 29	20 / 32	1 / 2

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Ilia Topuria

Odds

-688

Market-implied probability

Justin Gaethje 17%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Ilia Topuria$115

Justin Gaethje (model pick · research)$578

17% market-implied · model 34% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Ilia Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Justin Gaethje

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15