Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Dustin Pague enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Dustin Pague threatens submissions; Jared Papazian has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jared Papazian (53.5%).
- Dustin Pague has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dustin PagueL5 streak
oldest →L
KOvs John Albert · Dec 11L
vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13L
KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dustin PagueMetricJared Papazian
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.48
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dustin PagueJared Papazian
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dustin Pague(6 fights)Jared Papazian(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +48.0|Blue -48.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dustin PagueTargetJared Papazian
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Dustin Pague edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:35
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
