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Welterweight
3 Rounds
KJ Noons won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Sam Stout
Elo1356
KJ Noons

Sam StoutvsKJ NoonsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · Wednesday, April 16, 2014Quebec City, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

KJ Noons won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:30

Style matchupSam Stout: Pressure fightervsKJ Noons: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sam Stout wins(52.2%)

Actual result: KJ Noons wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Stout at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Sam Stout
Red Corner
VS
KJ Noons
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1355
Elo
1356
42
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sam StoutL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Caros Fodor · Feb 13
L
SUBvs James Krause · Jun 13
W
vs Cody McKenzie · Dec 13
L
KOvs Ross Pearson · Mar 15
L
KOvs Frankie Perez · Aug 15
latest
KJ NoonsL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Donald Cerrone · May 13
W
vs George Sotiropoulos · Oct 13
L
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · May 15
L
vs Joshua Burkman · Feb 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sam StoutMetricKJ Noons
4.17
Strikes / min
3.68
4.08
Strikes absorbed / min
3.78
57%
Strike defense
65%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
0.08
77%
Takedown defense
68%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.09evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1503Strikes56.8 vs 49.0Takedowns0.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.12 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.2
Sam StoutKJ Noons

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Sam Stout(10 fights)KJ Noons(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sam StoutTargetKJ Noons

By target zone

1
33% acc · 20%
Head
3
75% acc · 43%
0
0% acc
Body
0
4
100% acc · 80%
Leg
4
57% acc · 57%

By position

5
63% acc · 100%
Distance
5
63% acc · 71%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sam Stout rounds
0
even
1
KJ Noons rounds
Round 1KJ Noons edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
5 / 8
Sig Strikes
7 / 11
62%
Sig Str %
63%
5 / 8
Total Strikes
7 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1KJ Noons7 / 117 / 110 / 00
1Sam Stout5 / 85 / 80 / 00

Sam Stout

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights12

KJ Noons

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5