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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Jeff Molina won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1497

Elo1483

Jeff MolinavsDaniel LacerdaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeff Molina won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:46

Style matchupJeff Molina: Pressure fightervsDaniel Lacerda: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jeff Molina wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Jeff Molina wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeff Molina at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Lacerda enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jeff Molina has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jeff Molina has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Lacerda (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jeff Molina

Red Corner

Daniel Lacerda

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1497

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeff MolinaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Aori Qileng · Apr 21

vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov · Jun 22

latest

Daniel LacerdaL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Francisco Figueiredo · Apr 22

KOvs Victor Altamirano · Aug 22

KOvs CJ Vergara · Mar 23

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeff MolinaMetricDaniel Lacerda

7.25

Strikes / min

3.95

5.04

Strikes absorbed / min

8.28

55%

Strike defense

34%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.32

66%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.21Δ 6.54 — meaningful gap-4.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jeff MolinaDaniel Lacerda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeff Molina(3 fights)Daniel Lacerda(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.4|Blue -14.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeff MolinaTargetDaniel Lacerda

By target zone

72% acc · 83%

Head

64% acc · 35%

100% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 35%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

69% acc · 19%

Distance

88% acc · 70%

Clinch

0% acc

78% acc · 81%

Ground

75% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeff Molina rounds

even

Daniel Lacerda rounds

Round 1Jeff Molina edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control3:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 2Jeff Molina edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 62

Sig Strikes

20 / 25

76%

Sig Str %

73.5%

106 / 131

Total Strikes

31 / 37

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:26

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Lacerda	18 / 22	29 / 34	0 / 2
1	Jeff Molina	30 / 40	66 / 80	0 / 0
2	Daniel Lacerda	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0
2	Jeff Molina	17 / 22	40 / 51	0 / 0

Jeff Molina

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3

Daniel Lacerda

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5