Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Keita Nakamura threatens submissions; Tom Breese has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Breese
oldest →L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 16W
KOvs Daniel Kelly · May 18L
KOvs Brendan Allen · Feb 20W
KOvs KB Bhullar · Oct 20L
SUBvs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 21 Keita Nakamura
oldest →L
vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18W
vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18L
vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom BreeseMetricKeita Nakamura
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.53Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-0.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tom BreeseKeita Nakamura
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Breese(8 fights)Keita Nakamura(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tom BreeseTargetKeita Nakamura
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Breese edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control1:20
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 2Tom Breese edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control3:25
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:15Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control1:40
0Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:55Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
