Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26 Anthony PettisW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19L
SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20W
vs Donald Cerrone · May 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Michael ChiesaMetricAnthony Pettis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Michael ChiesaAnthony Pettis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +35.8|Blue -35.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +139.0|Blue -139.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Michael ChiesaTargetAnthony Pettis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns2
Control2:10
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:57Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:29
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
