Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stewart Nicoll enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Lucas Rocha has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lucas Rocha
oldest →L
SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 24 Stewart NicollL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Jesus Aguilar · Aug 24L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Apr 26L
DECvs Alden Coria · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lucas RochaMetricStewart Nicoll
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.42Δ 3.63 — meaningful gap-2.21
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Lucas RochaStewart Nicoll
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lucas Rocha(2 fights)Stewart Nicoll(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +100.4|Blue -100.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -56.0|Blue +56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Lucas RochaTargetStewart Nicoll
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Stewart Nicoll edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:09
14Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:30Control
Round 2Lucas Rocha edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns1
Control0:58
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Lucas Rocha edged it
Sig. strikes60
Takedowns2
Control0:18
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
