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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Song Yadong won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1535

Elo1517

Umar NurmagomedovvsSong YadongUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Saturday, August 29, 2026Shanghai, China

Official fight result

Song Yadong won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:48

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Umar Nurmagomedov

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -421 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsSong Yadong: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Song Yadong

Blue Corner

-516

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+373

(21%)

1535

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26

latest

Song Yadong

oldest →

vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23

vs Petr Yan · Mar 24

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25

vs Sean O'Malley · Jan 26

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricSong Yadong

3.86

Strikes / min

4.42

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

61%

Strike defense

55%

4.03

TDs / 15 min

0.78

79%

Takedown defense

73%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.00Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.48

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Song Yadong(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.4|Blue -18.4

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Umar NurmagomedovTargetSong Yadong

By target zone

50% acc · 54%

Head

33% acc · 45%

Body

100% acc · 27%

86% acc · 46%

Leg

60% acc · 27%

By position

62% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 82%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Song Yadong rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:58

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 21

Sig Strikes

11 / 23

62%

Sig Str %

48%

23 / 32

Total Strikes

24 / 36

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Song Yadong	5 / 10	18 / 23	0 / 0	1
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	7 / 10	17 / 21	1 / 1	0
2	Song Yadong	6 / 13	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Umar Nurmagomedov	6 / 11	6 / 11	0 / 2	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Umar Nurmagomedov

Odds

-421

Market-implied probability

Umar Nurmagomedov 77%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Umar Nurmagomedov (model pick · research)$124

Song Yadong$421

77% market-implied · model 62% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -421 · never rewritten

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights11

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17