Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Jamie Varner enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melvin Guillard
oldest →L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14 Jamie VarnerL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12L
vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13L
KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14L
KOvs James Krause · May 14L
SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melvin GuillardMetricJamie Varner
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Melvin GuillardJamie Varner
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Jamie Varner(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +136.3|Blue -136.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Melvin GuillardTargetJamie Varner
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jamie Varner edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 2Melvin Guillard edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:04
11Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:13Control
Round 3Jamie Varner edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:55
3Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
2:26Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
