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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Johnny Case won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1361
Johnny Case
Elo1361
Frankie Perez

Johnny CasevsFrankie PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Johnny Case won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:54

Model Prediction: Johnny Case wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Johnny Case wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Johnny Case at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Johnny Case has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Johnny Case
Red Corner
VS
Frankie Perez
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1361
Elo
1361
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Johnny CaseL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14
W
vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15
W
vs Yan Cabral · Nov 15
L
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Mar 16
L
vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17
latest
Frankie PerezL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Sam Stout · Aug 15
L
vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 16
L
vs Chris Wade · Jul 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Johnny CaseMetricFrankie Perez
3.95
Strikes / min
1.64
2.66
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
61%
Strike defense
54%
1.70
TDs / 15 min
1.75
72%
Takedown defense
50%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.29Δ 1.82 — meaningful gap-0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1500Strikes13.0 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Johnny CaseFrankie Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Johnny Case(6 fights)Frankie Perez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Johnny CaseTargetFrankie Perez

By target zone

40
47% acc · 68%
Head
6
23% acc · 38%
11
79% acc · 19%
Body
3
50% acc · 19%
8
73% acc · 14%
Leg
7
100% acc · 44%

By position

21
40% acc · 36%
Distance
14
39% acc · 88%
0
Clinch
1
50% acc · 6%
38
64% acc · 64%
Ground
1
100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Johnny Case rounds
0
even
0
Frankie Perez rounds
Round 1Johnny Case edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns2
Control2:46
8Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:34Control
Round 2Johnny Case edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control3:30
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Johnny Case edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:50
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
59 / 111
Sig Strikes
16 / 39
52.3%
Sig Str %
37%
79 / 137
Total Strikes
27 / 50
4 / 5
TDs
1 / 4
83.3%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
7:06
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Frankie Perez8 / 1613 / 211 / 20
1Johnny Case22 / 4327 / 512 / 20
2Frankie Perez7 / 1913 / 250 / 21
2Johnny Case25 / 4337 / 581 / 20
3Frankie Perez1 / 41 / 40 / 00
3Johnny Case12 / 2515 / 281 / 10

Johnny Case

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6

Frankie Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4