Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Vince Morales has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis Smolka
oldest →L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22 Vince MoralesL5 streak
oldest →L
vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24L
vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25L
DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricVince Morales
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Louis SmolkaVince Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -29.4|Blue +29.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +245.0|Blue -245.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Louis SmolkaTargetVince Morales
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Vince Morales edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
