Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Thiago Alves has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Thiago Alves has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Patrick Cote has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19 Patrick Cote
oldest →L
vs Stephen Thompson · Sep 14W
KOvs Joshua Burkman · Aug 15W
KOvs Ben Saunders · Jan 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jun 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricPatrick Cote
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago AlvesPatrick Cote
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)Patrick Cote(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +18.7|Blue -18.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago AlvesTargetPatrick Cote
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns0
Control0:55
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns1
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control1:41
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:27Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
