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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1447

Elo1538

Shamil AbdurakhimovvsSergei PavlovichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · Saturday, March 19, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:03

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(85.6%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sergei Pavlovich is a KO finisher (78% of wins). Shamil Abdurakhimov has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Sergei Pavlovich has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sergei Pavlovich (53.5%).
Sergei Pavlovich has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shamil Abdurakhimov

Red Corner

Sergei Pavlovich

Blue Corner

+270

(27%)

Vegas Odds

-350

(78%)

1447

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shamil AbdurakhimovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 18

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Sep 19

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Sep 21

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 23

latest

Sergei PavlovichW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23

vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25

vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shamil AbdurakhimovMetricSergei Pavlovich

2.41

Strikes / min

4.43

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

55%

Strike defense

55%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

0.48

45%

Takedown defense

75%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shamil AbdurakhimovSergei Pavlovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -91.6|Blue +91.6

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -700.0|Blue +700.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shamil AbdurakhimovTargetSergei Pavlovich

By target zone

25% acc · 24%

Head

46% acc · 100%

80% acc · 24%

Body

0% acc

69% acc · 53%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 29%

Clinch

50% acc · 19%

Ground

65% acc · 52%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shamil Abdurakhimov rounds

even

Sergei Pavlovich rounds

Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 34

Sig Strikes

21 / 47

50%

Sig Str %

44%

17 / 34

Total Strikes

22 / 48

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sergei Pavlovich	21 / 47	22 / 48	0 / 0	0
1	Shamil Abdurakhimov	17 / 34	17 / 34	0 / 1	0

Shamil Abdurakhimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights12