Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Che Mills is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Rory MacDonald has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rory MacDonald has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Che MillsW2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Chris Cope · Nov 11W
KOvs Duane Ludwig · Sep 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricChe Mills
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap-0.79
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rory MacDonaldChe Mills
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Che Mills(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rory MacDonaldTargetChe Mills
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control3:52
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control1:59
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
