← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gerald Meerschaert won · SUB

Elo1399

Elo1457

Bartosz FabinskivsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gerald Meerschaert won

SUB

Style matchupBartosz Fabinski: WrestlervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Bartosz Fabinski wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Gerald Meerschaert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bartosz Fabinski at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Gerald Meerschaert threatens submissions; Bartosz Fabinski has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Bartosz Fabinski has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Bartosz Fabinski

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1399

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bartosz FabinskiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Garreth McLellan · Apr 15

vs Hector Urbina · Nov 15

vs Emil Meek · Jul 18

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Nov 18

SUBvs Andre Muniz · Sep 20

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bartosz FabinskiMetricGerald Meerschaert

2.23

Strikes / min

2.95

1.46

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

51%

Strike defense

53%

7.10

TDs / 15 min

1.70

80%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bartosz FabinskiGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bartosz Fabinski(6 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.8|Blue +57.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bartosz FabinskiTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

22% acc · 33%

Head

78% acc · 88%

100% acc · 67%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

22% acc · 33%

Distance

71% acc · 63%

100% acc · 67%

Clinch

100% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bartosz Fabinski rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control0:13

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 13

Sig Strikes

8 / 10

46%

Sig Str %

80%

16 / 23

Total Strikes

12 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	8 / 10	12 / 14	0 / 0	1
1	Bartosz Fabinski	6 / 13	16 / 23	1 / 1	0

Bartosz Fabinski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25